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The attached review represents a contribution that reviews specific issues of Threshold of Significance from Chapter 3.4 - Watersheds, Hydrology and Floodplains of the draft EIR. This is intended to be reviewed in the context of comments that I have submitted in the PalCo SYP/HCP This is not intended to be comprehensive in terms of hydrology nor in terms of all of the issues raised in Chapter 3.4. Sincerely, Robert R. Curry
Chapter 3.4 dEIR ReviewRobert R. Curry, PhDNovember 14, 1998
Overview of Issues:The drafters of this EIR have attempted to establish a method of evaluating impacts of the proposed and comparative actions based on proposed tests for Thresholds of Significance. Because so much of the fundamental analysis depended on assessment of exceeding or not exceeding these proposed thresholds, their fundamental bases and premises must be critically reviewed. Because of the many interrelationships between the differing impacts evaluated for Thresholds of Significance, and because of the vague and inconclusive language and lack of specificity, I cannot evaluate these individually. I must attempt to determine if the premises upon which the reasoning is based are sound. They are not. The following comprise the primary considerations that appear not to have been evaluated or are presented in such a confused fashion as to not be professionally meaningful.
Riparian management zone (RMZ) sediment control is a stated objective of many sections of the dEIR, without basis in fact that it can be effectively accomplished. Section 3.7, p. 43 discusses RMZ sediment control (presumably fine sediment) as distinct from bank stability (a source of coarse sediment). Most of the goals of riparian management can be linked to the benefits stated, but channel stability is only weakly linked and sediment control is not linked. Section 3.6.3.3. actually states that "While some hillslope erosion is unavoidable due to the nature of logging operations, the delivery to streams can be mitigated to a less than significant level". This is the crux of the inadequacy of the proposed threshold concepts. No support is given for this statement, due; we are told, to the site-specific nature of sources of erosion. This is unacceptable. This is geomorphically naïve. If sediment is dislodged on hillslopes by logging but can be mitigated somehow by forest practices, then it must be trapped somewhere for geologic time periods. If sediment production is equal to sediment delivery and that is equal to sediment transport away from the site by the stream, then an equilibrium watershed condition exists. The hillslopes and all of the classes of streams must work together with the runoff generated by the rain falling on the watershed. If forest practices are increasing the volumes of sediment dislodged above those characteristic of long-term rates that have persisted through Recent geologic time, then forest practices must also increase runoff volumes proportionally and timing of runoff to carry the sediments away. It is the BALANCE that determines the thresholds of significance, not just impossible platitudes or wishes. Coarse sediment, that fills rearing pools, and builds up the bed of the stream to bury large woody debris and riparian vegetation, is all presumed to be derived from landslides and other hillside hillslope processes. Thus, the thresholds of significance attempt, very poorly, to evaluate the site-specific probability of increases in slope processes that would deliver such sediment to the streams. But that is only one source of coarse sediment. Another equally important (in terms of volume of sediment supplied as the result of anthropogenic activities) is the bank and bed of the stream itself. Most of the PalCo watersheds evaluated have alluvial (deposited by the stream itself) streambanks in at least the lower portions of the watercourses. More than half the length of the primary water courses in the Bear, Lower Eel, Yager, Elk and Freshwater basins on PalCo Lands have alluvial deposits along the channel banks. These are eroded under certain conditions to add gravel-sized sediment to the streambeds. One triggering event to erode sediment from stream banks and add it to pools farther downstream is an upstream landslide. When a streambed aggrades (builds up) following a landslide in the upper watershed that temporarily adds sediment to the river bed, a positive feedback cycle is initiated where higher streambeds cause undercutting of stream banks and toppling of riparian forest. Unless trapped behind a logjam or natural constriction, such a pulse of released self-amplifying sediment proceeds downstream - usually over a period of several heavy runoff years. We see this happening in the Lower Eel PalCo watersheds today in response to triggering many decades earlier. Another unevaluated triggering event to start a cycle of streambank coarse sediment erosion is a change in the frequency or frequency-magnitude of flooding. Some of the causes of such change were discussed in my PalCo SYP/HCP review under the general category of decreased interception losses. It is clear that the authors of the dEIR do not understand what frequency-magnitude concepts are. The language used in Section 3.4.3.4 shows that channel banks are not recognized as potential sources of sediment. Similarly, Table 3.6-6 ignores this very important linkage. In a place like lower Yager Creek, this linkage is probably the primary source of silviculturally derived sediment. But the real failing of the dEIR is shown in Section 3.4.3.2 that attempts to establish thresholds for changes in streamflows. The concept of evaluation by Habitat Units (HU) that is introduced in Chapter 3.8 fails when it comes to assessment of coarse sediment inputs (cf., 3.8 p. 33-35). Because the coarse sediment impacts are primarily manifest beyond (downstream from) the sources of those sediments, and because the reinforcing feedback mechanisms associated with coarse sediment may be amplified downstream. The discussions of the import of RMZ’s to fish habitats on these three pages is not in accord with generally accepted professional knowledge. As Don Erman has show for the last four decades of research publication here in California, streamside buffers have increasingly greater protective effects on aquatic habitats as a function of their widths. There is not a magic number that defines the limits of width necessary for streamside buffers. The ideas presented in Chapter 3.8 that full protection of streamside buffers greater than 100 ft wide is not necessary because of all of the corollary management practices that "set a trend" may be valid for fully balanced functioning watersheds, but these are not found on PalCo lands. The trends for much of the PalCo ownership has already "been set" in a downward degrading condition. One cannot simply sum up a series of considerations that purport to reduce individual impacts to "less than significant" as done in Chapters 3.4, 3.6 and 3.7 and then conclude that the sum is less than significant in terms of protection of habitats for target species. Because the feedbacks were not adequately considered in the former section, Section 3.8 cannot support its conclusions. For example, Section 3.4.3.2 states that "For risk to people and property, the likelihood of changing the recurrence interval of a storm from five years to two years was used as a threshold." Although I may know what the authors intend, they have stated a hydrologic impossibility. Timber harvest has only a very remote chance of changing the frequency of Pacific frontal storms in Northern California. More likely, the authors intended to mean that if we discovered that the magnitude of a runoff event associated with a five-year storm had been occurring every two years, a threshold would have been exceeded. With a long hydrologic record and an assumption of uniformity in storm frequency (ie., ignoring El Nino type events), such a criterion might be proposed, although only very naively. Like global warming, by the time it was provable, it would be too late to reverse. What the dEIR authors in Section 3.4.3.2 are apparently attempting is an evaluation of the frequency-magnitude relationships of storm rainfall and resulting runoff. As shown by CDF and as outlined in my PalCo SYP/HCP comments, this has already been demonstrated for Freshwater Creek, and has been demonstrated in the lower reaches of many other PalCo watersheds by Harvey Kelsey (op cit, PalCo comments). If, as suggested by the replotting of the CDF and Corps of Engineers cross-sections for Freshwater Creek, about 1 foot of aggradation has occurred in the last decades (Leslie Reid, PalCo SYP/HCP comments), then this threshold has already been exceeded. This demonstrates the non-functionality of the proposed thresholds. On Bear Creek, we see channel scour in the lower reaches of 6-10 feet associated with failure of log jams and a Humboldt Crossing in the same period. How can the dynamic properties of these streams be frozen in time to start the clock running for evaluation of net change? How can scour or fill events that take 20 years or more to reach equilibrium be evaluated? How can natural background changes in storm frequency be evaluated against runoff magnitude under saturated watershed soil conditions in an already roaded watershed? This whole section, and all of the hillslope, landslide, and stream channel stability interrelationships needs to be reconsidered. It is technically indefensible, requires information not being collected, and cannot be implemented. Another part of Section 3.4.3.2 attempts to dismiss the need for standards for low-flow because all silvicultural activities are expected to increase summer flows. Increase in summer low flows is probably the largest single cause of property damage in the state of California! Increases in summer low flow cause increases in mid-channel riparian vegetation. Streams that would go dry in the late summer and thus limit channel vegetation carry some water all summer after removal of a portion of the timber. This makes scour of the bed in subsequent winter flows difficult or impossible in all but the largest events (25 year or greater storm frequency-magnitudes), and thus increases the height of flooding in intermediate years, and the frequency of floods of a given depth. Changes in summer low flows are extraordinarily important and cannot be dismissed in channels that historically have a dry period in some of all of the late summers.
The attached review represents a contribution that specifically reviews forest hydrology, cumulative hydrologic effects, and other hydrologic issues as they may impinge on fish and riparian species habitats in the Palco HCP/SYP. This is not intended to be comprehensive in terms of hydrology. Sincerely Robert R. Curry
PALCO SYP/HCP REVIEWRobert R. Curry, PhDNovember 12, 1998
Overview of Response:This assessment of the Pacific Lumber Company Sustained Yield Plan and Habitat Conservation Plan focuses on the hydrologic aspects of the proposed plan. It is not intended to be comprehensive in this area, but to merely illustrate some of the shortcomings of the existing PalCo document. All reviewed documents have been derived in November of 1998 from the CERES web site maintained by the State of California. These include the PalCo SYP/HCP and associated documents, including its color maps, and the Draft Environmental Impact Report for the Headwaters Forest Acquisition and the PalCo Sustained Yield Plan and Habitat Conservation Plan of October, 1998. Some PalCo lands have also been visited in the field in August, 1998, and many of the proposed and active Timber Harvest Plans, as well as mitigation activities in progress under PalCo administration, have been reviewed.This response covers some areas of forest hydrology, cumulative hydrologic effects, and sediment yield only. These timber-harvest related fields of watershed science most directly affect the adequacy of the PalCo HCP as it attempts to address impacts of the proposed activities and the proposed conservation strategies for fish species that inhabit or utilize the PalCo lands and those downstream river areas that are directly affected by activities on PalCo lands. My comments also go to the adequacy of the database and assumptions upon which the Sustained Yield Plan is based. I am a Registered California Geologist specializing in watershed sciences, especially fluvial geomorphology and sediment transport hydrology. I have over 40 years of University-level teaching experience in Watershed Science and am currently a Research Professor at the University of California Santa Cruz where my graduate students are enrolled. I am also Research Director of the California State University Watershed Institute that is aligned with the Earth Systems Science program at California State University Monterey Bay, where I teach undergraduate courses in hydrology, geology, watershed restoration, soil science, and water resources. I have had extensive professional experience in the Headwaters Forest area and the Redwood Creek watershed, as well as the Six-Rivers and nearby National Forests. I helped draft the California Forest Practices Act in the 1960’s. Primary Areas of Hydrologic Concern with the PalCo HCP/SYP:Overview: Evidence of understanding and assessment of basic forest watershed science is not seen in the PalCo SYP/HCP. Treatments of most areas of basic hydrology, downstream cumulative effects, sediment yield and delivery to water courses, and the role of upland conditions as they may affect hydrology are either extremely weak, deferred to the future, or simply ignored altogether in the PalCo document. This is the single area of inquiry that is probably the most important in determining the adequacy of a Habit Conservation Plan for salmonid species, but it appears that the persons drafting the SYP/HCP have focused more on ancillary areas and a far-too-simple concept of salmonid habitats that link fine sediment yield and spawning habitats while ignoring the multiple fundamental issues of runoff timing, flood frequency, fluvial geomorphology, and stream equilibrium. The overall approach of the HCP seems to be to try to convince the reader that PalCo has chosen and carefully assessed the adequacy of the brand of Band-Aid that will be placed in the first-aid kits to be stationed in each watershed, rather than addressing the causes and prevention of the injuries and deaths that will likely occur to the species that are present.
Discussion of topics:
Interception losses occur when rainfall is evaporated from vegetation. Foresters often cite evapotranspiration as the causes of decreased runoff from a well-forested subwatershed as compared with one recently cut over or partly deforested. But measuring total evapotranspiration from a forest is virtually impossible. Interception losses are easily measured by simply measuring rainfall under a tree canopy and comparing it to that outside the canopy. Recent work (see cites by Leslie Reid) demonstrate that 30 to 50 percent of storm precipitation may be intercepted in high-rainfall high-intensity storm sites. When a forest canopy is removed in any significant proportion, the "leaf area index" decreases and interception losses also therefore decrease. This happens even in cold wet climates because air near the ground or even near a water surface is not completely saturated (100% humidity). An air mass at 90% humidity can still hold the equivalent of several inches more precipitation if there is a large surface area to intercept and evaporate it. Forest cutting reduces the leaf area index by orders of magnitude. This effect has been measured on PalCo lands in an older Master’s thesis effort at Humboldt State University. According to Dr. Reid’s analysis (personal communication) the effect of a modest and conservative 22 percent increase in effective precipitation results in about a doubling of flood frequency for mean annual winter floods and as much as a 250% increase in landslide volumes moving into watercourses. When such an effect is coupled with the compounding effects of increased sediment yield and resulting increases in stream aggradation as noted by Harvey Kelsey for sites below the PalCo holdings, and as noted in the data collected for Freshwater Creek for the comparative channel cross section surveys of 1975 and 1998, we end up with a combined effect for the first decade of 4-times the frequency of floods of any given magnitude below PalCo ownership in Freshwater Creek. The sedimentation effects that reduce cross-sectional area will persist much longer than the timber harvest effects. These sedimentation effects are largely gravel pool fillings, thus reducing habitat independent of fine-grained sediment yield that is the focus of the PalCo HCP effort. In landslide-prone terrain, the increased coarse sediment yield that results from the increased soil moisture and increased depth of saturation associated with the combined effect of decreased interception losses and decreased evapotranspiration all combine to compound the downstream, offsite cumulative effects of timber harvest as outlined in the PalCo document. Where is the analysis? How have the already-disequilibrated streams like Freshwater been factored into the SYP/HCP? Why are more new roads proposed for this already most over-roaded watershed? This is a prime example of the failure of the PalCo document to address hydrologic effects, whether obvious, like fog drip, or more subtle, such as increased flooding.
Most watercourses of any CDF class on PalCo ownership are incised with an inner channel. It is technically an inner gorge, but may be only 3 or 4 feet deep. Above that there may be a tectonically induced inner gorge of several 10’s to several hundreds of feet depth, or there may be a bedrock-controlled canyon wall of any steepness hundreds to one-thousand feet in vertical extent. I would estimate that at least 90 percent of the watercourse length on PalCo lands is incised. Only flood flows will reach the top of that incision. These are not alluvial terraces in most cases, but are shallow mass-wasting and soil creep dominated slopes that actively balance sediment supplied from the hillslopes to that transported to the watercourses. There is no net filtration or stopping of sediment transport, even through a dense willow, alder, and conifer closed canopy. Few midwinter studies quantify this, although I have done so in the Santa Cruz Mountains in mixed redwood and Douglas fir on slopes less steep than the averages in PalCo ownership. The limitation of activity within RMZ’s, as proposed by PalCo, can protect water temperature but cannot protect against discharge of sediment to the watercourse. If it could accomplish this task, watercourses with such protective zones would today be seen to have accumulated sediment levees or benches. All arguments about widths and measurement of those widths as horizontal distances or slope distances should be based on shading, wood recruitment, and food sources and habitats, but not on filtration. There are sound reasons to support the RMZ concept, even if PalCo is misusing the concept of the word "riparian". But it is not a sediment control strategy and does not reduce sediment delivery ratios except in a very short-term (hourly) fashion at the beginning of major sediment-yielding storms.
The primary problem with landslides, as with floods, is that harvest is scheduled to take place on unmapped sites where stability has only been inferred from a very inadequate database. Individual THPs are prepared for most sites, like for the ongoing active cutting on Yager Creek, where only very obvious active slides are noted in the THP maps as required by CDF. By linking a SYP/HCP to predicted photo- or field-based or CDF-mandated THP-scale mapping that will be conducted in the future forces us to accept a SYP today that cannot assure habitat protection. Because inner-gorges are ill-defined, as are amphitheater-headed slopes, and because forest cover generally masks accurate photo-interpretation, this area of the HCP is weak. Add to that the markedly increased soil water loading associated with reduced interception losses in cut-over areas, and the great change in slope loading associated with roads and road runoff, and one must conclude that the use of past geologic stability to predict future slope instability becomes virtually impossible. That is not to say that such mapping should not be continued and that its output should not be used fully for timber management, but one should not believe that such mapping is deterministic or that PalCo can protect and reduce take of Coho salmon with their proposed plan. Where production of Douglas Fir is to be encouraged in place of stump-sprout species such as redwood, slope stability may be compromised in sites where root arching comprises an important element of slope strength. Because species conversions will occur with the proposed SYP on some PalCo lands, and because Douglas-Fir roots rot out within a few years after cutting, but redwood and other stump-sprout species do not, hillslope soils have less shear strength and are more prone to debris slides when harvested as proposed by PalCo. Particularly difficult to justify is the enormous loophole provided by the caveats associated with extreme events of 50 and 100-year return periods. Climate is not fixed, and neither are the magnitudes of events of a given return period. Storms of about a 20-year return period based on the past 40 years of data tend to cause major damage in some watersheds that are already overloaded with sediment input relative to their transport capacity. An example is Freshwater Creek. In the same watershed, a "100-year" event (i.e., one "larger than ever recorded" or comparable to 1955 or 1964 events) may reset the geomorphic clock by sluicing out the excess stored sediment and restoring conditions that permit subsequent development of a good pool and riffle habitat sequence that could support spawning and rearing of salmonids. Alternatively, in the balanced watershed, only a 20-year event may clean the channel and reset pool volumes if large woody debris recruitment is adequate. The proposed "changed" and "unforeseen" circumstances (Vol. IV, Part H, pp 8-11) are really simply a way to avoid dealing with certain episodic events that would likely affect much or all of PalCo ownership simultaneously. The natural mosaic of forested watersheds is also impacted simultaneously by major events, but some portion of those channels and watersheds will hold while many fail in the sense that salmonid reproductive success is greatly reduced for 4 or more years. But it is these few areas that hold and can therefore maintain the gene pools. An effective SYP/HCP must address keeping some balanced watersheds fully intact to assist, but not guarantee, species survival during major flood and associated landslide events.
Also, the large areas of watersheds that pass through PalCo ownership but originate outside of it must be dealt with in a systematic fashion that protects the resources. Salmonids do not know who the property owners may be, or who was responsible for losses of residual pool volumes by the gravels that fill the pools in their natal streams. Multiple ownerships are difficult issues for cumulative hydrologic effects analyses. The proposed cut and conversion times seem far too accelerated to be able to accommodate similar activities on adjacent non-PalCo headwaters. This is then a fatal flaw in any watershed assessment. One cannot develop a SYP and cutting plan until a strategy is developed to assess and accommodate anticipated or potential changes on adjacent ownerships. The proposed buffer land considerations, as illustrated for example in the PalCo Map 4, are not watershed boundary based nor does the treatment of adjacent non-PalCo timberlands address cumulative hydrologic effects of PalCo’s actions in light of what may occur upstream. The 1998 Foster-Wheeler Corporation data cited in the dEIR, Chapter 3.7, do break down the watersheds by ownership and by forest land type. Those data do not appear to differentiate between forest lands upstream of PalCo and those downstream, but PalCo’s maps suggest that most of the Foster-Wheeler non-PalCo forest lands are upstream and thus would cumulatively limit potential disturbances on PalCo lands.
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